Portfolio Update: April 2025!

This month has been a train wreck even for seasoned investors and traders who have been in markets for decades due to the insane cross-asset volatility.

Furthermore, it was not only the volatility but also a sea change regarding safe-haven assets that stunned investors.

We successfully navigated the turbulent times and deployed significant cash earlier this month.

As a result, we reaped the benefits and are glad to inform you that our PF hit YTD highs yesterday and continues to outperform the benchmark.

Chart: Koyfin

When we zoom out and look, the severity of drawdowns in our portfolio has been significantly below the benchmark on almost every occasion.

Chart: Koyfin

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Equities!

Our paid subscribers would appreciate that we bought the dip at the right moment when the S&P 500 was around 5000.

We must never forget: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful”.

However, one can’t ignore the repercussions of the US Administration’s policies and the looming disruption due to draconian tariffs.

Though there has been progress on the deal front, we can’t deny that significant damage has been done. Due to “The Great Tariff Disruption,” we expect significant business bankruptcies and layoffs in the coming months.

We have begun to see the effects of the trade embargo on China as the number of container ships sailing from China to the US has fallen drastically in the past few weeks.

Chart: BBG

If a deal does not materialise in the next two weeks, we expect a scenario similar to COVID-19.

As a result, there is a high probability that the equity markets in the US haven’t bottomed out, and we might see lower levels in the next few months.

Nonetheless, bulls have something to cheer about: the Volatility Index (VIX) has plunged from 50+ levels to below 25.

If we are in a bear market, VIX should remain around 21-25 levels in the coming weeks.

Let’s move on to some crucial macro data points we stumbled upon this week, before we head towards a series of charts to comprehend the move in cross-asset markets.

Macro Data!