If CPI trend indicates a probable stagflation then how could Eric expect interest rate be zero in near future? The population -GDP link study is interesting, but logically declining or constant population should not stop economic growth if historically population growth was less than productivity growth.
The stagflation question was raised by me, Eric was pretty clear that inflation will fall as monetary aggregates are contracting. For those countries where consumption forms a bigger pie of GDP, depopulation will result in declining GDP growth.
This was a nice interview. I especially enjoyed Eric’s view on how he expects declining population and estate prices to be more powerful than declining labor force. It’s the clearest argument that deflation is more likely than inflation in the long term.
If CPI trend indicates a probable stagflation then how could Eric expect interest rate be zero in near future? The population -GDP link study is interesting, but logically declining or constant population should not stop economic growth if historically population growth was less than productivity growth.
The stagflation question was raised by me, Eric was pretty clear that inflation will fall as monetary aggregates are contracting. For those countries where consumption forms a bigger pie of GDP, depopulation will result in declining GDP growth.
This was a nice interview. I especially enjoyed Eric’s view on how he expects declining population and estate prices to be more powerful than declining labor force. It’s the clearest argument that deflation is more likely than inflation in the long term.
Thanks for this!
Thanks!
Glad you loved it!